By Matt Godbee
6:44 PM EST on February 23, 2026
Miami Marlins:
Preseason Win Total: 73.5
Will the Marlins continue to be a thorn in the side of the NL East contenders? They certainly were last year, putting together a resilient bounce-back season after the 2024 fire sale that sent Jazz Chisholm, Luis Arraez, and Jesús Luzardo out of town.
Miami enters 2026 with a rested and fully healthy Sandy Alcantara, along with a collection of young power arms in the rotation. Offensively, Kyle Stowers, Agustín Ramírez, and Otto Lopez headline the lineup, while Xavier Edwards continues to serve as a quality table-setter at the top.
This roster won’t overwhelm anyone with star power, but the youth and flexibility are real. Still, sustaining last year’s success will be difficult. A repeat near .500 would require another season of overperformance across the board.
ThePublicMoney.com Betting Angle:
It’s difficult to see the Marlins replicating last season’s results. They secured 79 wins despite posting a -89 run differential — one of the largest negative differentials for a team with that many wins. Everything broke their way, particularly in close games, and they still finished with a losing record.
The market has priced in some regression, but not enough. A return to the mid-to-high 60s is far more realistic than another flirtation with .500
Best Bet: UNDER 73.5 wins
Atlanta Braves:
Preseason Win Total: 88.5
The Braves enter 2026 still recovering from a brutal 2025 campaign. Injuries ravaged the roster, and at one point all five Opening Day starters were sidelined — an extraordinarily rare scenario in Major League Baseball.
The injury concerns haven’t disappeared. Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep are already set to miss time following spring surgeries, and shortstop Ha-Seong Kim is expected to miss at least the first month of the season.
Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies are positioned for bounce-back years and the organization is high on catching prospect Drake Baldwin after he seized meaningful playing time from Sean Murphy. Michael Harris must eliminate prolonged slumps, and Ronald Acuña Jr. remains the engine of the offense. Mike Yastrzemski will be asked to take over the starting left-field position after Jurickson Profar was suspended for the entire 2026 season.
The Braves are the ultimate wildcard in the East. When healthy, this is a roster capable of winning the division and shaking up the entire Nation League. But health has not been reliable, and depth will again be tested.
ThePublicMoney.com Betting Angle:
88.5 wins is a premium number. It assumes a near-clean bill of health and a full return to elite form. That is asking a lot for a roster already dealing with early injuries.
The talent is undeniable, and this core has won 95+ games before. But this number reflects the Braves at their ceiling. Betting into that requires everything to break right. That’s not the profile we see entering 2026.
Best Bet: UNDER 88.5 wins
Philadelphia Phillies:
Preseason Win Total: 91.5
The Phillies enter 2026 as division favorites after returning much of a roster that won 96 games in 2025. Kyle Schwarber returns on a major deal, and Adolis García steps in to offset Nick Castellanos’ departure. Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Alec Bohm round out a deep and dangerous lineup.
The rotation carries more uncertainty. Zack Wheeler’s health is critical, and Taijuan Walker must stabilize the back end. The bullpen, however, remains a clear strength.
This offense raises the floor. Power, experience, and lineup depth give Philadelphia a reliable path to scoring. If the rotation holds steady, another postseason run is well within reach.
ThePublicMoney.com Betting Angle:
91.5 wins feels short for this roster. The offense is among the most stable units in the division, and the bullpen protects close games. If Wheeler makes 28+ starts and the rotation remains serviceable behind him, this team lands comfortably in the 92–95 win range.
The number does not require a 100-win season — just competence on the mound to complement a proven offense.
Best Bet: OVER 91.5 wins
New York Mets:
Preseason Win Total: 89.5
Expectations are once again high in New York, but the roster carries significant questions. Pete Alonso’s departure leaves a sizable void in the middle of the lineup, placing additional pressure on Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor to anchor the offense.
Marcus Semien adds experience and defense at second base, while Jorge Polanco and Mark Vientos are expected to provide supporting production. Beyond the top names, however, the lineup thins quickly.
The rotation lacks a true frontline ace and instead leans on a mix of veterans and developing arms. Devin Williams steps in to replace Edwin Díaz, and the bullpen remains solid overall.
The Mets are competitive on paper, but the margin for error is thin in a division this strong.
ThePublicMoney.com Betting Angle:
The Mets have gone under their win total in three of the last five seasons. This year’s 89.5 number demands consistency from a rotation in transition and sustained production from a top-heavy lineup.
There is talent here, but too many outcomes rely on things going perfectly. In a division with limited room for mistakes, that profile is risky.
Best Bet: UNDER 89.5 wins
Washington Nationals:
Preseason Win Total: 65.5
The Nationals are deep into their rebuild, now six seasons removed from their 2019 World Series title. The roster features young, dynamic talent but remains light on power and proven pitching depth.
CJ Abrams and James Wood headline the lineup, while MacKenzie Gore and Cade Cavalli anchor a developing rotation. The long-term outlook hinges on internal growth rather than immediate contention.
A last-place finish is expected, but incremental progress is the true benchmark for 2026.
ThePublicMoney.com Betting Angle:
The Nationals won 66 games last season despite a poor run differential. With continued development from their young core, modest improvement is realistic.
65.5 is a low bar. This number does not require a leap — only incremental growth. In a season with limited expectations, that path is attainable.
Best Bet: OVER 65.5 wins
